Net‑Zero at Sea: MEPC 83, Delayed Decisions and the Future of the Maritime Industry - PART2

In our previous analysis, we explored how the IMO’s evolving climate agenda was beginning to reshape commercial strategy and regulatory expectations across the maritime sector. To make sense of the latest IMO negotiations, it helps to start with a concise snapshot of where things actually stand. The outcomes of MEPC 83 and the extraordinary session have created a mix of clarity and uncertainty; the overall direction is set, but the details, timelines and political compromises are still in motion.

Before diving into deeper analysis, this section provides a structured overview of the regulatory status, what’s agreed, what remains contested, and what these developments mean for industry and policymakers alike.

SNAPSHOTS FOR REFERENCE:

A. Regulatory Status at a Glance

• Approved in principle at MEPC 83

• Not adopted at the October 2025 extraordinary session

• Decision pushed to October 2026

• Earliest entry-into-force likely shifts from 2027 → 2028

• Core architecture remains intact

B. For Shipowners, Charterers & Financiers (What to Do Now)

• Expect a global carbon price even with timeline slippage. Use USD 100–380/tCO₂e as scenario anchors.

• Upgrade data, MRV, and emissions verification systems ahead of GFI monitoring (likely 2028+).

• Stress-test newbuild/retrofit decisions for both base and direct compliance trajectories.

• Treat EU ETS + FuelEU Maritime as early signals of IMO design rather than separate worlds.

• Bake regulatory uncertainty into charterparty clauses, financing covenants and fuel contracts.

C. For Policymakers, NGOs, and Public Bodies

• The delay reflects deep equity and revenue-use concerns, not technical disputes.

• Expect debates to intensify around SIDS/LDC compensation, food/energy security, and fund governance.

• Stakeholder coordination between IMO, EU, Pacific coalition and African Group will determine whether the framework is adopted in 2026.

• Scrutiny will increase on whether GFI + pricing can actually deliver 2030 and 2040 checkpoints.

D. What’s agreed in principle

• Global fuel-intensity standard (GFI)

• Base and Direct trajectories

• Two-tier fee levels: USD 100 / 380 per tCO₂e

• Creation of a Net-Zero Fund

E. What remains politically contested

• Revenue-use rules

• SIDS/LDC distributional safeguards

• Levy governance

• Compliance procedures and review cycles

F. What Happens Next

• MEPC 84/85 will refine technical guidelines but cannot adopt mid-term measures.

• Full adoption will be reconsidered at MEPC 86 in October 2026.

• Class societies expected to publish preliminary compliance tools in 2026–27.

• Industry should plan for a compressed implementation window (e.g., 2028 entry-into-force → GFI monitoring same year).

This analysis is provided for information purposes only. For further discussion or advisory support on these developments, please get in touch with our team.